As we closed out 2025, the Austin real estate market did what it often does in December: it slowed just enough to give buyers and sellers room to breathe.
But this December felt a little different.
While overall activity followed typical seasonal patterns, something shifted quietly in the background. Buyer curiosity started to pick up, conversations reopened, and questions about timing came back to the surface. Not because of headlines or hype, but because the fundamentals began to change.
Between steady sales volume, elevated inventory, and a meaningful shift in mortgage rates, December offered a clearer picture of what may be taking shape as we head into 2026. If you’re thinking about buying or selling this year, even loosely, this snapshot provides important context for planning your next move.
Key Takeaways From December 2025
Mortgage rates recently hit their lowest levels since 2022, reopening conversations for buyers who had been on pause
Buyer activity increased slightly year over year, even during a traditionally slower month
Inventory remains elevated, giving buyers more choice and leverage
Homes are taking longer to sell, reinforcing the importance of pricing and preparation
Early planning now can create stronger outcomes heading into the spring market
Mortgage Rates Drop to Three-Year Lows — With Important Caveats
Before diving into the local numbers, there’s one national development that’s directly influencing buyer behavior right now.
According to Mortgage News Daily, in their January 9, 2026 article “Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats,” average lenders released their best rate sheets since February 2023, pushing mortgage rates to their lowest levels since September 2022.
The shift was driven by a surprise announcement involving approximately $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases. That matters because mortgage-backed securities directly influence mortgage rates. When those securities rise, rates tend to move lower.
This helps explain something we’re already seeing locally: buyers who had paused over the last year or two are reaching out again, curious not just that rates have dropped, but wondering how long this window might last.
At the same time, the article makes an important point about volatility. Mortgage News Daily noted that rate movement was uneven throughout the day, with at least one lender adjusting rates back up slightly as the market reacted. Additional fluctuations are expected as the details of the mortgage-backed securities program continue to unfold.
The takeaway isn’t urgency for urgency’s sake. It’s awareness.
Rates are meaningfully lower than they’ve been in years, but short-term volatility is still part of the picture. For buyers and sellers alike, this shift doesn’t automatically signal it’s time to act. What it does signal is a change in affordability, monthly payment scenarios, and overall confidence — enough to justify having thoughtful, pressure-free conversations about next steps.
What December’s Market Means for Us Right Now
December’s numbers aren’t just a look back, they’re a useful baseline for how the market is behaving as we move through January and into early 2026.
Inventory remains elevated, homes are still taking longer to sell, and buyer behavior continues to be thoughtful rather than reactive. Combined with recent movement in mortgage rates, this creates a market that’s less about urgency and more about positioning.
The advantage right now is clarity.
What This Means for Buyers Right Now
For buyers, the current market offers a combination that’s hard to ignore: more options, less competition, and improving affordability signals.
With inventory elevated across most price ranges, buyers aren’t being forced into rushed decisions. Homes are staying on the market longer, which allows time to compare properties, revisit neighborhoods, and run realistic monthly payment scenarios.
As mortgage rates recently dipped to their lowest levels in years, we’re seeing buyers who paused over the last year re-enter the conversation. Not necessarily ready to move tomorrow, but ready to understand what’s possible again.
Right now, buyers benefit from:
More inventory to compare without bidding wars
Increased negotiating power on price, repairs, or timelines
The ability to keep contingencies in place
Time to learn the process without feeling rushed
For many buyers, January isn’t about acting immediately. It’s about getting informed and positioned early, before competition begins to build later in the year.
What This Means for Sellers Right Now
For sellers, the current market reinforces one key point: strategy matters more than speed.
Homes are still selling, even with longer days on market, but results vary widely based on pricing and preparation. Buyers are informed and patient, and they’re quick to move on if a home feels misaligned with current conditions.
The slight year-over-year dip in median sale price doesn’t eliminate opportunity. Instead, it highlights how important accurate pricing and presentation have become.
Sellers who are thinking ahead can use this time to:
Evaluate pricing based on today’s market, not past peaks
Make targeted improvements that help their home stand out
Understand buyer expectations before listing
Build a clear plan for a spring or early summer launch
As rates stabilize and buyer confidence improves, sellers who prepare now often find themselves ahead of the curve when activity picks up.
Why These Conversations Matter in January
One of the biggest advantages of this moment isn’t market timing, it’s having information before decisions are required.
January is an ideal time to ask questions, explore options, and understand how rates, inventory, and timelines intersect. We’re seeing more people reach out simply to get clarity, not because they need to act right away, but because they want to be ready when the timing feels right.
You don’t need to be committed to buying or selling to start the conversation. In fact, starting now often leads to better outcomes later.
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